As the 2025 NFL season heads into its final stretch, the Miami Dolphins find themselves in the thick of a tightly contested AFC playoff race. The Dolphins, who have steadily emerged as one of the more dynamic teams in the conference, have the talent and coaching to punch their ticket to the postseason—but the question remains: what will it take for Miami to make it to the playoffs?
Let’s break down Miami’s current situation, their strengths and weaknesses, and what needs to happen for them to secure a playoff berth this season.
A Promising Season So Far
The Dolphins have been one of the most exciting teams in the AFC, boasting a high-powered offense under head coach Mike McDaniel and led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Miami has flashed as a legitimate playoff threat, with big wins against top-tier competition and an offense that can overwhelm defenses with speed and explosiveness.
Tua’s connection with star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been electric, giving the Dolphins one of the fastest and most productive receiving tandems in the league. Paired with a resurgent run game featuring Raheem Mostert and emerging star De’Von Achane, Miami’s offense has put up points in bunches.
However, Miami’s path to the postseason is anything but straightforward in a loaded AFC that features perennial contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills, as well as surging teams like the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns.
Current Playoff Picture
As of late March 2025, the Dolphins are battling for a spot in both the AFC East and the wildcard race. The AFC East remains one of the most competitive divisions in football. The Buffalo Bills are neck and neck with Miami at the top, while the New York Jets and New England Patriots remain scrappy spoilers capable of derailing postseason aspirations.
Miami currently holds a winning record but sits in a crowded AFC wildcard race where teams like the Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans are all vying for position. The Dolphins’ remaining schedule includes key divisional matchups as well as tough non-divisional opponents such as the Cowboys and Ravens.
What’s Working in Miami’s Favor?
1. Explosive Offense
The Dolphins are among the top teams in total offense and passing yards per game. Mike McDaniel’s creative play designs and Tua’s accuracy have made this offense one of the hardest to defend. If they can continue to light up the scoreboard, Miami has a strong shot at outscoring opponents down the stretch.
2. Tyreek Hill’s MVP-Caliber Season
Tyreek Hill is putting together a historic campaign, leading the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. His ability to break games wide open with a single play gives Miami a constant threat to flip momentum in any contest. If Hill stays healthy, the Dolphins have an edge against even the stiffest competition.
3. Emerging Defense
Miami’s defense, led by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, has been steadily improving. While they’ve had struggles against top quarterbacks, the return of key players from injury, including pass rusher Jaelan Phillips and cornerback Xavien Howard, has provided a boost. The addition of veteran linebacker Bradley Chubb has also bolstered the pass rush.
4. Favorable Tiebreakers
With head-to-head victories over teams like the Chargers and Broncos, the Dolphins have a slight edge in some key tiebreaker scenarios. That could make a difference in a crowded wildcard picture.
The Roadblocks Ahead
1. Tough Schedule
Miami’s remaining games are no cakewalk. They face playoff-caliber teams that could test their playoff mettle. A critical matchup looms with the Buffalo Bills, which could determine the AFC East title. Games against teams like the Ravens and Cowboys will also challenge Miami’s ability to finish the season strong.
2. Inconsistent Road Play
The Dolphins have struggled away from Hard Rock Stadium, where they typically thrive. Miami will need to find a way to win key road games if they hope to solidify a playoff spot.
3. Injury Concerns
While Miami’s offensive stars have stayed relatively healthy, depth issues along the offensive line and in the secondary could become problematic. The Dolphins will need to stay healthy and manage their roster carefully to avoid late-season fatigue and injury setbacks.
What Needs to Happen?
1. Win the AFC East (or lock in a Wildcard)
The most straightforward path is to win the AFC East outright, which would guarantee Miami a home playoff game. However, if they fall short in the division, a wildcard berth is still within reach.
To win the division, Miami likely needs to defeat the Bills in their upcoming head-to-head matchup and finish at least one game ahead in the standings. Winning 3-4 of their remaining games could be enough to secure a wildcard berth, depending on how other AFC teams perform.
2. Beat Direct Competitors
Head-to-head matchups with other playoff contenders like the Jets and Ravens will have major playoff implications. Beating these teams would not only boost Miami’s record but also strengthen their tiebreaker position.
3. Stay Hot on Offense
Miami’s success hinges on its ability to score. The Dolphins will need to continue leaning into their offensive identity, emphasizing big plays and keeping defenses off balance with a fast-paced attack.
4. Create Defensive Turnovers
The Dolphins’ defense doesn’t need to be elite but must create key takeaways. In a conference loaded with high-powered offenses, forcing turnovers and limiting explosive plays will be crucial in close contests.
X-Factor: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa’s performance will be the ultimate deciding factor. When Tua is healthy and playing confidently, the Dolphins’ offense is nearly unstoppable. However, late-season pressure and defenses tightening up can challenge any quarterback. If Tua can lead the Dolphins with poise and continue to spread the ball to his playmakers, Miami could be a dangerous team come January.
Can the Dolphins Make It?
Yes—absolutely. The Dolphins have all the pieces needed to make the playoffs: an elite offense, improving defense, a smart coaching staff, and big-game playmakers. However, the margin for error is thin in the AFC. Miami will need to finish strong, win critical games, and avoid key injuries.
While they face one of the tougher closing schedules in the league, their destiny is largely in their own hands. If Miami can stay aggressive and finish with momentum, there’s no reason they can’t secure a playoff spot—and potentially make noise once they’re in.
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